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How Animals, People, and Seismologists Predict Earthquakes

Fish Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance

May 8, 2008 – World Intellectual Property Organization : Patent WO/2008/053463 — a system for monitoring and analyzing the Earth's core. The system allows forecasting the time, epicenter, and magnitude of an upcoming earthquake 1–7 days in advance.

April 23, 2009 – Japan Patent Office : A "Tectometer for Short-Term Earthquake Prediction" was patented.

December 31, 2020 – Shenzhen Graduate School of Peking University, China : Analyzed a 38TB dataset of seismic data. Prediction accuracy reached up to 70%.



How Seismologists Predict Earthquakes: Facts

There is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake striking the Tokyo area within the next 30 years.

Professor Hiroyuki Fujiwara, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan

Deterministic predictions of individual earthquakes with accuracy sufficient for evacuation planning are fundamentally impossible.

Seismological Society of America

Even a hypothetical perfect prediction method would have questionable social utility, as organized evacuations of urban centers would likely fail, while panic and other side effects could be expected.

Seismologist Stathis Stiros, Greece