Since 2011, I have been trying to create and implement an online technology for accurately predicting the strength, location and time of earthquakes, TRON. In this interview, I told AGI about the barriers and obstacles that hinder the implementation of this startup and what has helped me stick to this idea for 14 years now.
When and at what point did you first realize that the TRON project would face systemic resistance?
It happened when I learned the words of Stathis Stiros, a seismologist from Greece. He said: “Even an excellent (hypothetical) forecasting method will have dubious social utility, since “an organized evacuation of urban centers is unlikely to be successful” while panic and other unwanted side effects can be expected.” Such words are not science, but betrayal. In a healthy environment, such a so-called “scientist” would be instantly ostracized and anathema. But here, it turns out, everything is fine. That's when I realized that seismologists don't need the technology to accurately predict earthquakes at all.
What institutional barriers did you encounter when trying to promote TRON?
In my opinion, the main and only barrier in this matter is official seismology. Both business and society are clearly interested in reducing the consequences of earthquakes. This technology does not threaten any state institutions either. I personally met with the Governor of Primorye and the Governor of Hokkaido when she was here. After a while, their deputies came to me and said that they had passed on information about my technology to the relevant scientific communities. All roads lead to seismologists, and then people like Academician Tanatkan Abakanov, former director of the Kazakh Institute of Seismology, come on stage. Here is his quote: "Who is a blogger? People who have not found themselves in normal life. And they begin to fool our citizens with their chatter." Curtain.
Can you give a specific example?
I corresponded with the Russian Academy of Sciences for a long time until in 2015 I finally contacted the Earthquake Forecasting Council at the Kamchatka branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Having told them about my technology, I began to wait for some kind of expert opinion from them. Instead, they suggested that I start forecasting earthquakes myself, and they would check the results. I was very shocked by this answer – what kind of work is this, checking the results? You can find data on past earthquakes on the Internet in a minute – and comparing the forecast with the facts is a task that any fifth-grader can handle. And this attitude is typical not only of Russian scientists. In Japan, about 100 organizations deal with issues related to earthquakes. And I have not received an answer from any of them, not to a single one of my hundred requests.
Why do you think official science takes this position?
Because we have opposite goals. I am afraid of TRON's failure, they are afraid of its success. Personally, I fully admit that there are other solutions that allow predicting earthquakes, maybe not as elegant and beautiful as TRON, but they exist. And here it should be noted that all such solutions relate to what K. Marx called "closing technologies". This is like cell phones in relation to pagers. After the implementation of TRON, all current seismology will be forced to change radically, moving from theoretical science to the practical plane. Tens, hundreds of thousands of seismologists around the world will be left without work, without preferences and their own offices, without foreign symposiums, seminars and congresses. Of course, they do not want this and are afraid.
Were there any attempts to attract large investors or strategic partners? What became a barrier to the deal?
In December 2021, I had the chance to participate in the play4wins accelerator hackathon, where I gave an online presentation to potential investors from the USA and Spain. But then February 24, 2022 happened and everything related to Russia instantly became toxic for all Western investors, venture capitalists and business angels.
And what did you decide to do next? Rethink your strategy or start acting on persistence?
In a mode where there is no feedback and you don’t know what works and what doesn’t, there can only be one strategy – move. You know, like in the Roman proverb: “If a ship has no goal, all winds are fair to it.” As for persistence – I don’t consider myself a persistent person. It’s just that TRON is dozens, if not hundreds, of saved human lives – poor, rich, adults, children. And in this position, I understand that every thought of mine in this direction, every word, every pixel of mine is time saved in the future, behind which there are human lives. I’m not the first one who likes animals more than people, but the lives of children are sacred.
Are there any personal, your personal limitations that hinder the active promotion of TRON?
Oh!!! There’s a lot to talk about here. First of all – the language barrier. Despite the fact that I publish materials on my English and Japanese-language sites, I do not know English, much less Japanese. And this is a very big problem when trying to reach foreign sites. It is very difficult for me to work with the same English-language LinkedIn.
Next - geography: I live in Russia. In this country, earthquakes are far from the main problem. Yes, in Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Altai, the Caucasus they know what it is, but there is no mass demand for forecasting here. In the same Japan, California or Turkey, every child knows: the earth can kill. In Russia, it is not the earth that kills. The topic of provincial isolation can also be attributed to geography. Startups, hackathons, accelerators - this is all Moscow and St. Petersburg. In our taiga village of Luchegorsk, all these are words from another world. We have neither federal television nor a cinema, so what kind of networking can we have here.
And finally - I do not have an academic "crust". I have invested years and many resources into my education, studying not only in Russia, but also in Japan, China, South Korea, Indonesia. But for the academic world, I am a "man without regalia". It so happened that TRON was born not in MIT or Waseda, but in the Russian hinterland. But I think you will agree - the truth can come from anywhere.
Have you ever felt tired or despaired by what is happening? Was there a moment when you wanted to give up?
Well, of course. But not so much tired as despair. I have asked myself more than once: "Well, admit it - you are wrong. Well, the whole company cannot march out of step. The US Seismological Society clearly said: "Deterministic predictions of individual earthquakes with sufficient accuracy to plan evacuation programs are impossible in principle." In such difficult moments, various, sometimes very difficult thoughts creep into your head. But time passes, the introspection of the "be your own psychoanalyst" mode is turned on, after which you go on and do what you must. In this regard, I often recall the words of our Soviet professor Legosov: "To be a scientist means to be naive. We are so focused on searching for the truth that we do not think about how few people want us to find it. But it is always there, whether we see it or not. Whether we choose it or not. The truth does not care about our needs and desires. It does not care about our governments, ideologies, religions. It will wait. All the time." Here is the pilot testing of the MVP prototype of TRON and is waiting for its finest hour.
And were there cases when someone supported you? Maybe not with money, but at least morally - with faith in the project?
You know, I am very grateful to the Universe for bringing me together with people who, even if not TRON, personally support me. There are not many such people, but they exist. As for the TRON technology itself, the results of the survey conducted on the Russian managers portal Exe in 2014 were very important to me. There was a vote based on the results of the TRON presentation. The position “I like the idea, I am ready to invest money” gained 14.29% of the votes. And I am also strongly supported by the stupidity of modern science.
Can you tell me more about the stupidity of science?
Yes, of course. 2012. USA. A 15-year-old schoolboy, Jack Andraka, comes up with a potentially revolutionary test for the early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. After that, he begins to promote his discovery. The teenager wrote 200 letters until one of the doctors showed interest in his invention.
Another, more recent example is 2021. Scientists make a completely unexpected discovery - it turns out that sperm flagella rotate not in a two-dimensional plane, but in three-dimensional space. And at such moments, I understand how far my seditious satori - insights like “the level of biological differences between men and women, in principle, do not allow them to have equal social rights” are from today's science.
Or here's another, very recent one: “Our scientific articles were not accepted and published in academic journals. As a result, we could not get funding for new research. "And without sufficient funds, it was difficult to continue our research," says Professor Itzhaki, who is involved in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Before our eyes, science has transformed from a temple of shining pure reason into another orthodox religious feeding trough for dogmas and retrogrades.
You say that the TRON MVP test will solve everything. But what if the test fails? Do you have a "plan B"?
To be honest, I have thought about this a lot and still could not imagine how the test could fail. Another issue is that in 2011, I really assumed that I would soon be invited to Stockholm to receive the Nobel Prize. Now it is 2025 and it is already clear that there is cognitive dissonance somewhere here - either I overestimated my mental abilities, or underestimated the collective stupidity of humanity. If the working prototype shows TRON that the problem is not in me, but in humanity, then I will continue to implement my next ideas. But there will be other stakes there - the Setun project alone is worth trillions.
If TRON fails and it turns out that I wasted 14 years of my life for the sake of my exorbitant pride, losing my business, family, home, and health, then I will start writing a book about the "survivor bias". "Life at the Turning Point of Time" - ask for the e-book in libraries and reading rooms in your city. That's my "B" plan.
This text is not a complaint, but a diagnosis. We live in a world where even obvious solutions are forced to break through the wall of human stupidity for decades. For me, TRON is not just a technology for playing "Russian roulette" on a "roller coaster" with tectonic plates. On the one hand, this is a verdict on modern official science, stuck somewhere in the times of Newton. On the other hand, it is a litmus test of the maturity of a society that prefers to simply wait for trouble rather than prevent it.
