Since 2011, I have been trying to create and implement an online system for accurately predicting the strength, location and time of earthquakes, TRON. 14 years have passed, but TRON still does not function. Why? I will tell you about the barriers - personal and systemic.
My Personal Barriers
Language. “I don’t speak English.”
TRON materials have been translated into English and Japanese, but even a perfect translation creates a filter — a layer of distance between me and the scientific community or potential investors.
Geography. “I live in Russia.”
Here, earthquakes aren’t seen as a top priority. Yes, people in Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Altai, and the Caucasus know what earthquakes are. But there’s no broad demand for prediction. In Japan, California, or Turkey, even children know the ground can kill. In Russia, it’s rarely the ground that does.
Provincial Isolation. “I don’t live in Moscow or St. Petersburg.”
Venture funds, accelerators, startup hubs — all of that is another universe compared to my small taiga town of Luchegorsk. We don’t even have a movie theater or national TV. Hackathons? That’s science fiction.
Lack of academic credentials. “I don’t have a PhD.”
I’ve spent years and serious resources on education, studying in Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, and Indonesia. But to the orthodox academic world, I’m still “a guy with no degrees.”
Systemic Obstacles
Scientific. “That’s not how science works.”
TRON is based on animal behavior analysis — something traditional seismology doesn’t accept.
Technical. “No sensors, no data.”
TRON needs an infrastructure of detectors. But who’s willing to invest in something that hasn’t been “validated”?
Bureaucratic. “This should be handled by the government.”
State institutions are slow. Disasters are not.
Psychological. “Animal behavior sounds like shamanism.”
That’s how many people react, even though the system is built on years of field observation.
Media-related. “Where’s your Nature paper?”
No publications — no credibility. No credibility — no publications.
Financial. “Who would fund an unproven solution?”
The paradox: you need resources to prove it works, but no one gives you resources until it’s proven.
Afterword
This is not a complaint — it’s a diagnosis. We live in a world where even obvious solutions (like disaster forecasting) struggle for decades to break through walls of skepticism. TRON is not just a technology for playing Russian roulette on tectonic rollercoasters. It’s a litmus test for a society that prefers to wait for catastrophe rather than prevent it. And yes — it’s also a verdict on the state of modern academic science.
