The pursuit of reliable earthquake forecasting
Earthquakes—a subject of fear and fascination—are among nature’s most destructive phenomena, capable of causing widespread devastation and loss of life. They occur through the sudden release of gradually accumulated tectonic stress in Earth’s crust. The faults that host earthquakes are part of a complex system with many unknown or unknowable parameters. Small changes in the subsurface can lead to large changes in seismic activity. Faults behave unpredictably, even in laboratory settings. Indicators of forthcoming earthquakes, such as foreshocks, occur inconsistently. Despite advances in seismology, accurately predicting the time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake remains difficult to achieve. The slow buildup of stress along faults is challenging to model and to measure. The influence of background conditions, static and dynamic stress transfer, and past earthquake history are also hard to quantify. That unpredictability, combined with the infrequent occurrence and rapid o...