Why earthquake prediction remains an unpredictable science
Experts say quake forecast is “extremely hard” because of the complexity of fault lines, points where massive and irregularly shaped slabs of solid rock meet below the Earth’s surface. An earthquake of 8.8 magnitude, one of the 10 strongest ever recorded, struck Russia’s Far East early on Wednesday, leading to a tsunami alert throughout the Pacific region. Even as “tsunami waves” were reported in Japan and Alaska, panic spread through Japan to the US state of Hawaii. Governments moved to evacuate coastal cities facing a greater risk of potentially massive waves crashing into urban areas. Despite giant scientific leaps that have enabled the human race to forecast major climatic and natural disasters, including tsunamis, earthquakes remain largely unpredictable. There is no accurate warning system for earthquakes, and any progress towards building one is hardly substantive. Experts say earthquake prediction is “extremely hard” because of the complexity of fau...