Earthquake forecasting

Gemma 4 Kaggle Hackathon 2026 took place from April 3 to May 19, 2026. The goal was to create solutions based on Gemma 4 multimodal models to address real-world global challenges.  TRON startup participated in the Global Resilience direction - building systems for disaster prediction and response. 1,610 teams participated out of 14,523 registered participants.  TRON technology author, Boris D. Yarovoy competed as a solo team of one person, writing all the software code for the pilot experiment independently. Hypothesis Multimodal neural networks, such as Gemma 4 from Google DeepMind, can detect changes in animal behavior by analyzing video recordings. This enables the transition from manual animal observation by humans to a fully automated system. Why Gemma 4 The multimodal Gemma 4 model is capable of working with video in zero-shot mode (without fine-tuning). This allows overcoming the limitatio...

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This technology was developed by me immediately after the Japanese earthquake on March 11, 2011 . The online technology for accurately predicting the magnitude, location, and time of earthquakes, «TRON» (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus), is based on the ability of domestic, farm, and wild animals to sense earthquakes in advance. By collecting information over the Internet about changes in the behavior of these animals, and then using the "greedy algorithms" of Keilis-Borok, it is possible to predict a future earthquake with an accuracy of up to 1 day, the epicenter with an accuracy of up to 10 km, and the strength of the shock with an accuracy of up to 1 magnitude. Initially, I assumed that its testing would take a year, after which I could work on the next problem . Unfortunately, this assumption did not take into account the fact that seismologists are absolutely not interested in implementing this ...

  Earlier I showed you this text in the Americantranslation of Google Translate . Now look at the same text in the free translation of the Chinese AI DeepSeek What is TRON? TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) is an online technology for precise earthquake prediction. It analyzes behavioral anomalies in domestic and farm animals capable of sensing approaching seismic activity within a 50km radius 5-10 days before tremors. Origins of the Concept In 2001, researchers proposed using the internet to collect biological signals. After Japan's March 11, 2011 disaster, developers studied Ainu indigenous knowledge of predicting quakes through bear behavior. The 1975 Haicheng earthquake (China, magnitude 7.3) proved pivotal - authorities evacuated the city based on reports of animal distress, saving 97% of the population - marking history's first successful mass earthquake prevention. Why Animals? Since 373 BCE (Pliny the Elder's accounts of Greece's quake), animal...

 Experts say quake forecast is “extremely hard” because of the complexity of fault lines, points where massive and irregularly shaped slabs of solid rock meet below the Earth’s surface. An earthquake of 8.8 magnitude, one of the 10 strongest ever recorded,  struck  Russia’s Far East early on Wednesday, leading to a tsunami alert throughout the Pacific region. Even as “tsunami waves” were reported in Japan and Alaska, panic spread through Japan to the US state of Hawaii. Governments moved to evacuate coastal cities facing a greater risk of potentially massive waves crashing into urban areas. Despite giant scientific leaps that have enabled the human race to forecast major climatic and natural disasters, including tsunamis, earthquakes remain largely unpredictable. There is no accurate warning system for earthquakes, and any progress towards building one is hardly substantive. Experts  say  earthquake prediction is “extremely hard” because of the complexity of fau...