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Imagine a system that successfully predicts 80% of earthquakes, but without the subsequent earthquake.

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 - Did you imagine it? Because I couldn't - how is that even possible? If the prediction is successful, it means an earthquake happened. If there was no earthquake, then it's not a successful prediction. But here, everything is mixed into one. The AI ChatGPT Astra in its detailed audit of my initial post €200,000 Needed to Test a World-Class Scientific Hypothesis suggested this game of hallucinations to me. ChatGPT confuses two completely different statistical metrics: recall (the system's ability to detect 8 out of 10 disasters) and precision (how many times the system will raise a false alarm). A system can find almost all earthquakes, while simultaneously crying wolf for no reason every two weeks. In another situation, I might not have engaged with an AI of this level, but since people are barely interested in the topic of accurate earthquake prediction, I will continue to debate with what is available for now. The pain is huge, the potential economic impact is co...

ChatGPT's audit of a proposal to sponsors for a world-class project with €200,000

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User  Investigate according to the superradar scheme: https://www.tron.ru/2026/09/invest-ai-project-global.html AI Superradar Verdict The idea in the article is a distributed network for observing animal behavior + AI, which is supposed to find pre-seismic anomalies hours or days before an earthquake. The pain is huge, the potential economic effect is colossal, and modern cameras, microphones, and computer vision models have indeed drastically reduced the cost of testing the hypothesis. But as an investment project in the formulation of the article, I would not invest €200k right now in exchange for a stake. The reason is not that the idea is inherently impossible. The reason is that the article makes a leap from "there are separate interesting observations" to "a solution exists," and this specific transition has not yet been scientifically proven. Moreover, some of the evidence in the article is presented incorrectly. (tron.ru) At the same time, a much str...

Calling IT specialists: join the Stanford & UN competition at NeurIPS 2026

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On August 17, 2026, SimulacraBench — a NeurIPS 2026 competition was launched: AI must model population groups from UN microdata. The organizers are Stanford's Digital Economy Lab and the STAIR research group (Stanford CS), together with UNHCR, UNICEF and the World Bank. The development phase runs until October 30; the finals and prizes — November 1–14, 2026. I, Boris Yarovoy , author of TRON — a technology for the short-term forecasting of earthquake magnitude, location and time — am assembling a volunteer team to take part in this competition. A strong result at NeurIPS means a leaderboard position, international visibility and, above all, partners and resources for testing and validating the TRON prototype — and, subsequently, for scaling the technology. I am looking for IT specialists who understand (or want to understand) how AI works. Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting System TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) Write to me on LinkedIn with the subject line...

TRON: Technology for Accurate Prediction of Earthquake Magnitude, Location, and Tim

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This technology was developed by me immediately after the Japanese earthquake on March 11, 2011 . The online technology for accurately predicting the magnitude, location, and time of earthquakes, «TRON» (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus), is based on the ability of domestic, farm, and wild animals to sense earthquakes in advance. By collecting information over the Internet about changes in the behavior of these animals, and then using the "greedy algorithms" of Keilis-Borok, it is possible to predict a future earthquake with an accuracy of up to 1 day, the epicenter with an accuracy of up to 10 km, and the strength of the shock with an accuracy of up to 1 magnitude. Initially, I assumed that its testing would take a year, after which I could work on the next problem . Unfortunately, this assumption did not take into account the fact that seismologists are absolutely not interested in implementing this ...