Short-term earthquake forecast - chronicle of the startup "TRON"

Year 2025
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  • December 6 — Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT joins the TRON project
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Global earthquake detection and warning using Android phones

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Editor’s summary Earthquake early warning systems depend on real-time analysis of waves detected at nearby seismic stations or by smartphone accelerometers. The latter approach, although less sensitive, is a promising way to offer alerts in areas without seismic stations. In a major step forward, Allen  et al . describe the outcomes of an alert system rolled out to Android phones in 98 countries, which increased total warning system access 10-fold to 2.5 billion people over 3 years. Issuing more than 1200 alerts over that period, the system recorded low-magnitude errors and provided preshake warnings consistent with other detection systems but on a much larger scale. —Angela Hessler Abstract Earthquake early-warning systems are increasingly being deployed as a strategy to reduce losses in earthquakes, but the regional seismic networks they require do not exist in many earthquake-prone countries. We use the global Android smartphone network to develop an earthquake detection capabil...
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Earthquakes disrupt lake microbes by altering sediment and nutrient balance

  When an earthquake causes a landslide, debris flow, or erosion, it can change the makeup of nearby lakes by introducing larger sediment particles, causing faster sediment buildup, and affecting carbon sequestration. The sediments that build up on lake bottoms act as a historical archive, recording the lake's biological, physical, and chemical changes and how they affect microbes such as diatoms (microscopic glass-like algae). Yet little is known about how sudden, earthquake-driven disturbances may affect lake ecosystems. Xue and team looked at the long-term changes in Lake Cuopu (Lake Tsopu) in the Himalayas. The 200-kilometer radius around the lake experienced 63 earthquakes greater than magnitude 5 between 1900 and 2017. The lake's high altitude, alpine climate, and low human activity made it an ideal site to examine the microbial and geochemical changes caused by these earthquakes. In 2017, researchers took a 45-centimeter-long sediment core from the center of Lake Cuopu, ...
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Explained: How Animals Save Humans from Earthquakes

What is TRON? TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) is an online technology for precise earthquake prediction. It analyzes behavioral anomalies in domestic and farm animals capable of sensing approaching seismic activity within a 50 km radius 5–10 days before tremors. The Problem Earthquakes kill thousands of people every year. In the 20th century, annual fatalities averaged 15,000–20,000. In the 21st century, despite advances in seismic construction, the average has risen to 25,000–30,000. According to Our World in Data (Oxford University), mortality per 100,000 population increased from 0.01 in 1900 to 0.08 in 2025 — an eightfold rise. According to UNDRR, earthquakes account for more than 25% of all global economic losses from natural disasters — $18–27 billion in direct damage annually, not including indirect losses. Current early warning systems trigger after the shaking has already begun, providing only 10–60 seconds of reaction time. No short-term forecasting system (h...
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TRON — Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting Technology

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TRON is a technology that detects earthquakes before they happen — hours, days, or even weeks before. How? By collecting and analyzing data on changes in the behavior of domestic and farm animals. Unlike traditional seismology, TRON does not rely on satellites or expensive sensors. It uses a distributed network of human observations to detect early signals of an impending earthquake. Why it matters TRON’s mission is to give people the only thing that matters in the event of a disaster: time to evacuate. We can’t stop earthquakes. But we can be prepared. Status We are currently seeking investment (€100,000) for a pilot deployment of the MVP in seismic zones. Find out more: How it works | Investment proposal
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The pursuit of reliable earthquake forecasting

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  Earthquakes—a subject of fear and fascination—are among nature’s most destructive phenomena, capable of causing widespread devastation and loss of life. They occur through the sudden release of gradually accumulated tectonic stress in Earth’s crust. The faults that host earthquakes are part of a complex system with many unknown or unknowable parameters. Small changes in the subsurface can lead to large changes in seismic activity. Faults behave unpredictably, even in laboratory settings. Indicators of forthcoming earthquakes, such as foreshocks, occur inconsistently. Despite advances in seismology, accurately predicting the time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake remains difficult to achieve. The slow buildup of stress along faults is challenging to model and to measure. The influence of background conditions, static and dynamic stress transfer, and past earthquake history are also hard to quantify. That unpredictability, combined with the infrequent occurrence and rapid o...
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The US and Canada are facing the largest earthquake in the last 500 years

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 Scientists from Columbia University have conducted a study that has shown the high risks of earthquakes and tsunamis of great power in the United States. Using underwater mapping techniques, scientists have mapped the Cascadia subduction zone - a thousand-kilometer fault line stretching from southern Canada to northern California - in unprecedented detail. It turned out that the fault is divided into four segments, and is not one continuous strip, like most fault lines. The discovery could be even more catastrophic - the reason for the risks is that the plates have a diverse structure of sediments and rocks, so there is a constant displacement of their fragments in different directions. According to scientists, the earthquake will cause the largest tsunami in history, at least thirty meters high, which can cause irreparable damage to California, Washington and Oregon. For comparison, an earthquake with a magnitude of up to 8.3 is expected in California's San Andreas. If a magnitud...
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日本では地震の予知 - TRON - Technology Real-time Online Nucleus ウィキペディアによると、「地震予測は原則として不可 能だと多くの学者は指摘している」となっ

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ウィキペディアによると 、「地震予測は原則として不可 能だと多くの学者は指摘して いる」となっており、現代科学界もそう認めています。しかし、私は、1995年、すな わち最初にインターネットのネットワークが誕生した時から、人類は地震予測が可能 になったと確信しています。 2003年3月 、私は「人工知能を機能させる環境としてのインターネット」を発表 し、初めてインターネットによる地震予測が可能との仮説を提示しました。その 後、この考えに基づいて、日本、ニュージーランド、米国カリフォルニア州等の地 震危険度の高い地域における地震の日時・場所及び震度の予測を可能にする、TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) 技術が開発されてきました。 TRON 技術の基盤となっているのは、鳥類・魚類・獣類が地震及び噴火の到来を予 感するという、古代から幾度となく確認されている事実です。例えば、日本の原住民 族であるアイヌは、上記の自然災害の予知のため、くまを自宅で飼っていました。現 代でも、その予知能力は震度7度の海城地震(中国)や震度7度のアルタイ地震(ロシア) の際にも確認されてきました。いずれも、現地の人々が動物の異常行動に気付いたた め、多数の死傷者の発生を回避できました。もう一例を挙げると、 2009年、「オープ ンカレッジ」の英国学者レイチェル・グラント(Rachel Grant) 氏がイタリアのカエル の行動を研究していたところ、繁殖期の最中にもかかわらず、突然全ての牡のカエル が繁殖地から姿を消し、戻ったのは震度6度の壊滅的なラクイラ地震が終わってからで した。また、 2013年4月、 ウィーン市における欧州地球科学連合の年次総会では黒ア リの地震予知についての報告が発表されています。現在、インターネットのおかげで、動物園、水族館、爬虫類館、家畜飼養施設、さらには個人で飼っている動物の行動変化についての情報を迅速に取得できます。また、情報収集には、既存のソーシャル・ネットワークであるツイッターやフェースブック、グーグルプラスが大変適しています。動物が震度３～5度の弱い地震にいかに反 応しているかとの統計情報をまとめ、現代数学の解析手法を用いることで、より強い 地震の日時・...
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Imagine a system that successfully predicts 80% of earthquakes, but without the subsequent earthquake.

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 - Did you imagine it? Because I couldn't - how is that even possible? If the prediction is successful, it means an earthquake happened. If there was no earthquake, then it's not a successful prediction. But here, everything is mixed into one. The AI ChatGPT Astra in its detailed audit of my initial post €200,000 Needed to Test a World-Class Scientific Hypothesis suggested this game of hallucinations to me. ChatGPT confuses two completely different statistical metrics: recall (the system's ability to detect 8 out of 10 disasters) and precision (how many times the system will raise a false alarm). A system can find almost all earthquakes, while simultaneously crying wolf for no reason every two weeks. In another situation, I might not have engaged with an AI of this level, but since people are barely interested in the topic of accurate earthquake prediction, I will continue to debate with what is available for now. The pain is huge, the potential economic impact is co...
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Homo from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia earthquake sensitive

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An earthquake sensitive is a person who claims to have the ability to predict earthquakes . Notable sensitives include American geologist Jim Berkland , who proposes that sensitivity should be scientifically employed in earthquake prediction . Sensitives often claim to feel manifest physical and mental effects prior to an earthquake, including ringing of the ears , dizziness, ear tones, headaches, vivid dreams, anxiety , and visions . Reliability There is no evidence that earthquake sensitives are genuinely able to predict earthquakes, and the so-called symptoms of sensitivity remain at best highly controversial. No scientific proof of these abilities has been demonstrated. [1] Jim Berkland's claim to earthquake sensitivity was formally investigated and appeared to be groundless. [2] Gene Emery [3] keeps track of psychic predictions and has discussed Clarisa Bernhardt's failed predictions as well as those of other alleged earthquake sensitives. [4] In 1976, Clarisa Bernhar...
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How Animals, People, and Seismologists Predict Earthquakes

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Fish Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance Amphibians Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Reptiles Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Rodents Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Cats Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Dogs Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Dogs and cats  are one of the most tragic volcanic disasters in human history - the death of Saint-Pierre on the island of Martinique in 1902. A cloud of hot gases from the crater of Mont Pelee, completely burned the city. As a matter of minutes killed more than thirty thousand people odnako of animals after the tragedy, rescuers found only a few dead cats and dogs. As it turned out, almost all pets away from the city in advance, anticipating the impending catastrophe. In Chile, before the earthquake in 1835, every one of the dogs left...
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MCP TRON: Борис Д. Яровой - 夷海参崴 MCP TRON: Борис Д. Яровой - 夷海参崴
MCP TRON — Inventor of the Technology
2011 — Theoretical foundation of the TRON technology
2026 — Automation of the TRON technology