Overview
TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) is a hybrid neural network platform for the accurate prediction of earthquake magnitude, location, and time. It is based on ethological data (animal behavior), crowdsourced observations, and, in the future, IoT sensor telemetry.
TRON’s goal is to forecast seismic wave arrivals hours, days, or even weeks in advance—unlike current systems, which only provide a few seconds of warning. A real-world precedent is the 1975 Haicheng earthquake in China, where mass animal panic led to evacuation and saved hundreds of thousands of lives. It remains the only documented case of successful large-scale earthquake prevention.
1. Problem / Market Opportunity
Earthquakes are among the most devastating and least predictable natural threats. On average, 17 major (magnitude 7–8) and 1 catastrophic (8+) earthquakes occur annually. Average yearly fatalities have increased from ~33,000 in the 20th century to ~45,000 in the 21st. Economic losses amount to ~$4.8 billion per year.
There is currently no technology capable of short-term (hours to days) earthquake forecasting. Existing systems detect an event after it occurs and provide only 10–60 seconds of warning. TRON fills this critical technological and market gap, offering a fundamentally new class of seismic safety solutions.
2. Innovation / Unique Value Proposition
TRON is an online earthquake prediction platform powered by behavioral ethology, crowdsourcing, and (eventually) telemetry. It collects signs of animal distress via volunteer observations, surveillance cameras, and mobile devices. AI analyzes this data to detect anomalies that precede seismic events—not seconds, but hours or days in advance.
Key advantages of TRON:
-
Uses animals as biosensors — free and omnipresent
-
Requires no expensive sensors — leverages existing infrastructure
-
Scales through user participation
-
Incentivizes involvement — users help protect themselves and others
Unique approach:
-
Behavioral ethology + AI
-
Crowdsourced — every smartphone becomes a sensor
-
Detects anomalies before seismic waves
-
Low cost, accessible, flexible to deploy
Why now:
-
Growth in AI power and data availability
-
Rising interest in citizen science and volunteer platforms
-
Societal shift from reaction to prediction in natural risk management
3. Business Model
-
Freemium access: basic access includes 3-day risk alerts and general analytics.
Premium subscription: 4-day alerts, personalized notifications, expanded analytics, early access to new features. -
Licensing for governments (B2G):
-
National civil protection agencies
-
Municipal authorities for integration with local warning and evacuation systems
-
-
Licensing for businesses (B2B):
-
Insurance companies — risk assessment and new product development
-
-
White-label solutions:
-
TRON platform rebranded for client integration
-
-
Targeted advertising for pet-related products
-
Contextual ads based on user behavior and app usage
-
Technology readiness level: TRL 2–3 (idea stage with preliminary architecture).
Use cases confirmed for animals such as: fish, amphibians, reptiles, rodents, cats, and dogs.
4. Market & Competition Analysis
Target markets:
TRON is aimed at seismically active regions (population ~5 billion), including:
-
Civil protection agencies (Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Turkey, Chile)
-
Insurance companies (esp. US, Japan, China) — billions in annual losses
-
Operators of critical infrastructure: nuclear power, dams, metros, gas, railways
-
Private users: pet owners, residents in high-risk zones
Competition:
TRON has no direct competitors in earthquake forecasting. Existing systems (e.g., USGS, Japan’s EEW, Mexico’s SASMEX) respond after tremors begin, offering 10–60 seconds of lead time.
TRON offers pre-seismic alerts — hours or days ahead — using animal behavior analysis.
5. Broader Impact
Social impact:
-
Reduces disaster-related deaths
-
Lowers economic damage
-
Engages citizens in disaster preparedness
Environmental impact:
-
Non-invasive — no interference with nature
-
Minimal carbon footprint
UN Sustainable Development Goals:
-
Goal 3: Good Health & Well-Being
TRON saves lives by enabling early evacuation. -
Goal 8: Decent Work & Economic Growth
TRON creates new jobs in AI, ethology, and civil protection. -
Goal 9: Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure
TRON is an AI-powered biosensor innovation that builds resilience. -
Goal 11: Sustainable Cities & Communities
TRON makes towns safer from natural disasters. -
Goal 13: Climate Action
While not climate-related, TRON supports preventive risk mitigation.
6. Risks
1. Scientific validation
Animal sensitivity to seismic anomalies is documented, but not yet fully understood. There's a risk of non-replicable patterns across regions.
2. Signal-to-noise
Behavioral anomalies may stem from non-seismic causes (e.g., weather, stress, noise). Models must distinguish valid signals from noise.
3. Scalability
Effective prediction needs critical mass of observations. Low animal/user density may reduce effectiveness.
4. Privacy and ethics
Use of surveillance, geolocation, and behavioral data may raise ethical and legal issues, especially in data-regulated countries.
7. Upside Risks
1. Reverse Black Swan effect
Even one successful prediction (e.g., 70% accuracy) could trigger explosive media coverage and institutional interest.
2. First-mover advantage
TRON could dominate the new niche of biosignal-based seismology.
3. Geopolitical importance
TRON may become a national security asset in earthquake-prone countries (Japan, China, US, Turkey, etc.).
4. Ecosystem expansion
Potential markets: risk-based insurance, animal behavior analytics, pet tech, data marketplaces.
5. Scientific contribution
Even with partial accuracy, TRON could advance ethological and seismic research — boosting credibility and funding.
8. Team
-
Boris D. Yarovoy – Founder & Project Lead. Serial entrepreneur since 1989, internet business since 1997, winner of two national internet awards. Trained in Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan.
-
Ignat B. Yarovoy – Ethologist
-
Alexey V. Krivtsov – Engineer
9. Funding Request
TRON is seeking private investments and grant support at the pre-seed stage. Preferred model: hybrid of equity and grants.
Equity Allocation Table:
| Stakeholder | Share | Contribution Description |
|---|---|---|
| Business Angel (optional) | 5% | €10K for MVP relocation to seismic zone |
| Venture Fund | 20% | €100K for platform development and local pilot |
| Strategic Buyer (optional) | 50% | Control package for large-scale acquisition (Alphabet, Meta, OpenAI, etc.) |
| Minor investors | 10% | Digital investment certificates |
| Boris Yarovoy | 15% | Founder and operator |
Due to TRON’s public relevance and viral potential, we do not foresee a traditional investment path (Seed → A → Growth). Even partial MVP success could lead to media resonance and scientific controversy — triggering immediate strategic deals.