「９月 26 日近畿にM8級大地震」と騒がれた八ヶ岳南麓天文台代表の串田氏の地震予測は外れて一安心といきたいところだが、

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去年の3月11日なにしてた VICTIMS MAY BE LESS
「９月26日近畿にM8級大地震」と騒がれた八ヶ岳南麓天文台代表の串田氏の地震予測は外れて一安心といきたいところだが、実は地震の危機は完全に無くなったわけではなく9月6日にどうやら第6ステージと呼ばれる状況となりこの調子で行けば10月頭に地震が来る可能性があるというのです。つまりあの地震予測はハズレではなく、より地震の危機が高まっていると認識したほうがよさそうだ。

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«TRON в зоне RUбля»

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How Animals, People, and Seismologists Predict Earthquakes

Fish Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance Amphibians Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Reptiles Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Rodents Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Cats Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Dogs Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Dogs and cats are one of the most tragic volcanic disasters in human history - the death of Saint-Pierre on the island of Martinique in 1902. A cloud of hot gases from the crater of Mont Pelee, completely burned the city. As a matter of minutes killed more than thirty thousand people odnako of animals after the tragedy, rescuers found only a few dead cats and dogs. As it turned out, almost all pets away from the city in advance, anticipating the impending catastrophe. In Chile, before the earthquake in 1835, every one of the dogs left...

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Global earthquake detection and warning using Android phones

Editor’s summary Earthquake early warning systems depend on real-time analysis of waves detected at nearby seismic stations or by smartphone accelerometers. The latter approach, although less sensitive, is a promising way to offer alerts in areas without seismic stations. In a major step forward, Allen et al . describe the outcomes of an alert system rolled out to Android phones in 98 countries, which increased total warning system access 10-fold to 2.5 billion people over 3 years. Issuing more than 1200 alerts over that period, the system recorded low-magnitude errors and provided preshake warnings consistent with other detection systems but on a much larger scale. —Angela Hessler Abstract Earthquake early-warning systems are increasingly being deployed as a strategy to reduce losses in earthquakes, but the regional seismic networks they require do not exist in many earthquake-prone countries. We use the global Android smartphone network to develop an earthquake detection capabil...

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Explained: How Animals Save Humans from Earthquakes

What is TRON? TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) is an online technology for precise earthquake prediction. It analyzes behavioral anomalies in domestic and farm animals capable of sensing approaching seismic activity within a 50 km radius 5–10 days before tremors. The Problem Earthquakes kill thousands of people every year. In the 20th century, annual fatalities averaged 15,000–20,000. In the 21st century, despite advances in seismic construction, the average has risen to 25,000–30,000. According to Our World in Data (Oxford University), mortality per 100,000 population increased from 0.01 in 1900 to 0.08 in 2025 — an eightfold rise. According to UNDRR, earthquakes account for more than 25% of all global economic losses from natural disasters — $18–27 billion in direct damage annually, not including indirect losses. Current early warning systems trigger after the shaking has already begun, providing only 10–60 seconds of reaction time. No short-term forecasting system (h...

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TRON — Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting Technology

TRON is a technology that detects earthquakes before they happen — hours, days, or even weeks before. How? By collecting and analyzing data on changes in the behavior of domestic and farm animals. Unlike traditional seismology, TRON does not rely on satellites or expensive sensors. It uses a distributed network of human observations to detect early signals of an impending earthquake. Why it matters TRON’s mission is to give people the only thing that matters in the event of a disaster: time to evacuate. We can’t stop earthquakes. But we can be prepared. Status We are currently seeking investment (€100,000) for a pilot deployment of the MVP in seismic zones. Find out more: How it works | Investment proposal

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ChatGPT's audit of a proposal to sponsors for a world-class project with €200,000

User Investigate according to the superradar scheme: https://www.tron.ru/2026/09/invest-ai-project-global.html AI Superradar Verdict The idea in the article is a distributed network for observing animal behavior + AI, which is supposed to find pre-seismic anomalies hours or days before an earthquake. The pain is huge, the potential economic effect is colossal, and modern cameras, microphones, and computer vision models have indeed drastically reduced the cost of testing the hypothesis. But as an investment project in the formulation of the article, I would not invest €200k right now in exchange for a stake. The reason is not that the idea is inherently impossible. The reason is that the article makes a leap from "there are separate interesting observations" to "a solution exists," and this specific transition has not yet been scientifically proven. Moreover, some of the evidence in the article is presented incorrectly. (tron.ru) At the same time, a much str...

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Imagine a system that successfully predicts 80% of earthquakes, but without the subsequent earthquake.

- Did you imagine it? Because I couldn't - how is that even possible? If the prediction is successful, it means an earthquake happened. If there was no earthquake, then it's not a successful prediction. But here, everything is mixed into one. The AI ChatGPT Astra in its detailed audit of my initial post €200,000 Needed to Test a World-Class Scientific Hypothesis suggested this game of hallucinations to me. ChatGPT confuses two completely different statistical metrics: recall (the system's ability to detect 8 out of 10 disasters) and precision (how many times the system will raise a false alarm). A system can find almost all earthquakes, while simultaneously crying wolf for no reason every two weeks. In another situation, I might not have engaged with an AI of this level, but since people are barely interested in the topic of accurate earthquake prediction, I will continue to debate with what is available for now. The pain is huge, the potential economic impact is co...

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日本では地震の予知 - TRON - Technology Real-time Online Nucleus ウィキペディアによると、「地震予測は原則として不可能だと多くの学者は指摘している」となっ

ウィキペディアによると、「地震予測は原則として不可能だと多くの学者は指摘している」となっており、現代科学界もそう認めています。しかし、私は、1995年、すなわち最初にインターネットのネットワークが誕生した時から、人類は地震予測が可能になったと確信しています。 2003年3月、私は「人工知能を機能させる環境としてのインターネット」を発表し、初めてインターネットによる地震予測が可能との仮説を提示しました。その後、この考えに基づいて、日本、ニュージーランド、米国カリフォルニア州等の地震危険度の高い地域における地震の日時・場所及び震度の予測を可能にする、TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) 技術が開発されてきました。 TRON 技術の基盤となっているのは、鳥類・魚類・獣類が地震及び噴火の到来を予感するという、古代から幾度となく確認されている事実です。例えば、日本の原住民族であるアイヌは、上記の自然災害の予知のため、くまを自宅で飼っていました。現代でも、その予知能力は震度7度の海城地震(中国)や震度7度のアルタイ地震(ロシア) の際にも確認されてきました。いずれも、現地の人々が動物の異常行動に気付いたため、多数の死傷者の発生を回避できました。もう一例を挙げると、 2009年、「オープンカレッジ」の英国学者レイチェル・グラント(Rachel Grant) 氏がイタリアのカエルの行動を研究していたところ、繁殖期の最中にもかかわらず、突然全ての牡のカエルが繁殖地から姿を消し、戻ったのは震度6度の壊滅的なラクイラ地震が終わってからでした。また、 2013年4月、ウィーン市における欧州地球科学連合の年次総会では黒アリの地震予知についての報告が発表されています。現在、インターネットのおかげで、動物園、水族館、爬虫類館、家畜飼養施設、さらには個人で飼っている動物の行動変化についての情報を迅速に取得できます。また、情報収集には、既存のソーシャル・ネットワークであるツイッターやフェースブック、グーグルプラスが大変適しています。動物が震度３～5度の弱い地震にいかに反応しているかとの統計情報をまとめ、現代数学の解析手法を用いることで、より強い地震の日時・...

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Calling IT specialists: join the Stanford & UN competition at NeurIPS 2026

On August 17, 2026, SimulacraBench — a NeurIPS 2026 competition was launched: AI must model population groups from UN microdata. The organizers are Stanford's Digital Economy Lab and the STAIR research group (Stanford CS), together with UNHCR, UNICEF and the World Bank. The development phase runs until October 30; the finals and prizes — November 1–14, 2026. I, Boris Yarovoy , author of TRON — a technology for the short-term forecasting of earthquake magnitude, location and time — am assembling a volunteer team to take part in this competition. A strong result at NeurIPS means a leaderboard position, international visibility and, above all, partners and resources for testing and validating the TRON prototype — and, subsequently, for scaling the technology. I am looking for IT specialists who understand (or want to understand) how AI works. Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting System TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) Write to me on LinkedIn with the subject line...

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Foresight: Am I dreaming? No. - VICTIMS MAY BE LESS.

VICTIMS MAY BE LESS 去年の6月13日なにしてた

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Замечания и предложения deepseek по тексту инвестиционной программы

Ваш текст выглядит хорошо структурированным и убедительным, но есть несколько моментов, которые можно улучшить для большей ясности, убедительности и профессионального впечатления. Замечания и предложения по тексту 1. Общее описание Уточнение технологии : Сейчас TRON описывается как "гибридная нейросетевая система", но не совсем ясно, как именно сочетаются этология, телеметрия и краудсорсинг. Можно кратко пояснить механизм работы (например, "ИИ анализирует данные с камер наблюдения, носимых устройств и отчетов пользователей о поведении животных"). Упомяните, что система уже имеет подтвержденные кейсы (если есть) или хотя бы теоретическую базу. 2. Проблема / рыночная возможность Конкретизация ущерба : Хорошо, что приведены цифры, но можно добавить примеры крупных землетрясений (например, Гаити 2010, Япония 2011) с оценкой ущерба. Укажите, что страховые компании и государства тратят миллиарды на ликвидацию последствий, а не на предупреждение. 3. И...

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