Foresight: Am I dreaming? No. - VICTIMS MAY BE LESS.

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VICTIMS MAY BE LESS

去年の6月13日なにしてた

MCP TRON

«TRON в зоне RUбля»

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Global earthquake detection and warning using Android phones

Editor’s summary Earthquake early warning systems depend on real-time analysis of waves detected at nearby seismic stations or by smartphone accelerometers. The latter approach, although less sensitive, is a promising way to offer alerts in areas without seismic stations. In a major step forward, Allen et al . describe the outcomes of an alert system rolled out to Android phones in 98 countries, which increased total warning system access 10-fold to 2.5 billion people over 3 years. Issuing more than 1200 alerts over that period, the system recorded low-magnitude errors and provided preshake warnings consistent with other detection systems but on a much larger scale. —Angela Hessler Abstract Earthquake early-warning systems are increasingly being deployed as a strategy to reduce losses in earthquakes, but the regional seismic networks they require do not exist in many earthquake-prone countries. We use the global Android smartphone network to develop an earthquake detection capabil...

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Imagine a system that successfully predicts 80% of earthquakes, but without the subsequent earthquake.

- Did you imagine it? Because I couldn't - how is that even possible? If the prediction is successful, it means an earthquake happened. If there was no earthquake, then it's not a successful prediction. But here, everything is mixed into one. The AI ChatGPT Astra in its detailed audit of my initial post €200,000 Needed to Test a World-Class Scientific Hypothesis suggested this game of hallucinations to me. ChatGPT confuses two completely different statistical metrics: recall (the system's ability to detect 8 out of 10 disasters) and precision (how many times the system will raise a false alarm). A system can find almost all earthquakes, while simultaneously crying wolf for no reason every two weeks. In another situation, I might not have engaged with an AI of this level, but since people are barely interested in the topic of accurate earthquake prediction, I will continue to debate with what is available for now. The pain is huge, the potential economic impact is co...

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How Animals, People, and Seismologists Predict Earthquakes

Fish Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance Amphibians Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Reptiles Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Rodents Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Cats Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Dogs Can Predict Earthquakes in Advance: Evidence Dogs and cats are one of the most tragic volcanic disasters in human history - the death of Saint-Pierre on the island of Martinique in 1902. A cloud of hot gases from the crater of Mont Pelee, completely burned the city. As a matter of minutes killed more than thirty thousand people odnako of animals after the tragedy, rescuers found only a few dead cats and dogs. As it turned out, almost all pets away from the city in advance, anticipating the impending catastrophe. In Chile, before the earthquake in 1835, every one of the dogs left...

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ChatGPT's audit of a proposal to sponsors for a world-class project with €200,000

User Investigate according to the superradar scheme: https://www.tron.ru/2026/09/invest-ai-project-global.html AI Superradar Verdict The idea in the article is a distributed network for observing animal behavior + AI, which is supposed to find pre-seismic anomalies hours or days before an earthquake. The pain is huge, the potential economic effect is colossal, and modern cameras, microphones, and computer vision models have indeed drastically reduced the cost of testing the hypothesis. But as an investment project in the formulation of the article, I would not invest €200k right now in exchange for a stake. The reason is not that the idea is inherently impossible. The reason is that the article makes a leap from "there are separate interesting observations" to "a solution exists," and this specific transition has not yet been scientifically proven. Moreover, some of the evidence in the article is presented incorrectly. (tron.ru) At the same time, a much str...

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TRON — Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting Technology

TRON is a technology that detects earthquakes before they happen — hours, days, or even weeks before. How? By collecting and analyzing data on changes in the behavior of domestic and farm animals. Unlike traditional seismology, TRON does not rely on satellites or expensive sensors. It uses a distributed network of human observations to detect early signals of an impending earthquake. Why it matters TRON’s mission is to give people the only thing that matters in the event of a disaster: time to evacuate. We can’t stop earthquakes. But we can be prepared. Status We are currently seeking investment (€100,000) for a pilot deployment of the MVP in seismic zones. Find out more: How it works | Investment proposal

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Explained: How Animals Save Humans from Earthquakes

What is TRON? TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) is an online technology for precise earthquake prediction. It analyzes behavioral anomalies in domestic and farm animals capable of sensing approaching seismic activity within a 50 km radius 5–10 days before tremors. The Problem Earthquakes kill thousands of people every year. In the 20th century, annual fatalities averaged 15,000–20,000. In the 21st century, despite advances in seismic construction, the average has risen to 25,000–30,000. According to Our World in Data (Oxford University), mortality per 100,000 population increased from 0.01 in 1900 to 0.08 in 2025 — an eightfold rise. According to UNDRR, earthquakes account for more than 25% of all global economic losses from natural disasters — $18–27 billion in direct damage annually, not including indirect losses. Current early warning systems trigger after the shaking has already begun, providing only 10–60 seconds of reaction time. No short-term forecasting system (h...

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Calling IT specialists: join the Stanford & UN competition at NeurIPS 2026

On August 17, 2026, SimulacraBench — a NeurIPS 2026 competition was launched: AI must model population groups from UN microdata. The organizers are Stanford's Digital Economy Lab and the STAIR research group (Stanford CS), together with UNHCR, UNICEF and the World Bank. The development phase runs until October 30; the finals and prizes — November 1–14, 2026. I, Boris Yarovoy , author of TRON — a technology for the short-term forecasting of earthquake magnitude, location and time — am assembling a volunteer team to take part in this competition. A strong result at NeurIPS means a leaderboard position, international visibility and, above all, partners and resources for testing and validating the TRON prototype — and, subsequently, for scaling the technology. I am looking for IT specialists who understand (or want to understand) how AI works. Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting System TRON (Technology Real-time Online Nucleus) Write to me on LinkedIn with the subject line...

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中国の地震予知犬、毎夜の「誤報」に近隣住民がうんざり

去年の3月11日なにしてた VICTIMS MAY BE LESS 【5月8日 AFP】中国東部の江西（Jiangxi）省の省都、南昌（Nanchang）では地震予知に犬を使っている。しかし、この地震予知犬による連夜の「誤報」に近隣住民たちは不満を募らせている。　中国は周期的に地震の恐怖にさらされている。先月同国南西部・四川（Sichuan）省で発生した地震では、およそ200人が死亡または行方不明になっており、また過去に起きた大災害による死者は数十万人にのぼる。　江西省南昌の地震防災局に勤めるソン（Song）さんがAFPに語ったところによると、地震の発生が近づくと犬が異常な行動を取るという理由から、ソンさんの職場では省政府の指示を受けて犬を飼っている。犬は地震発生の10日ほど前に異常な行動をすることもあるという。ニワトリやアヒルなどでも同じ効果が得られるという。　しかし、省の公式ニュースサイト大江網（Dajiang）は、毎晩くり返される犬の鳴き声への不満を近隣住民らがソーシャルメディアに書き込んでいると報じた。ある住民は「地震防災局で何匹の犬を飼っているのか知らないが、毎晩11時になるとほえ始めるんだ」と話した。　ソンさんはAFPに対し、これらの犬が毎晩ほえていたという事実はないと述べるとともに、犬たちはすでに郊外の地震防災関連施設に移されたと話した。　大江網は、近隣住民の不満を和らげるため、犬がほえないように口輪をかけるという手もあるかもしれないとソンさんが話したとも伝えた。そんなことをしたら地震が近づいていることを犬が知らせられなくなるのではと聞かれると、ソンさんはそれもそうだと納得し、上司と相談すると話したという。 (c)AFP >>> MORE >>>

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