Как животные, люди и сейсмологи прогнозируют землетрясения

Рыбы могут заранее прогнозировать землетрясения

2008 год, 8 мая. Всемирная организация интеллектуальной собственности:  патент WO/2008/053463 - система мониторинга и анализа состояния ядра Земли. Система позволяет прогнозировать время, эпицентр и магнитуду приближающегося землетрясения за 1-7 дней

2009 год, 23 апреля, Государственное патентное бюро Японии: запатентован «Тектометр для краткосрочного прогноза землетрясений».

2020 год, 31 декабря, Китай, Высшая школа Шэньчжэня Пекинского университета: анализ массива сейсмических данных объемом 38 ТБ. Точность предсказаний достигает 70%.

 


Как сейсмологи прогнозируют землетрясения: факты

Существует 70-процентный шанс для 7 бального землетрясения в районе Токио в течение ближайших 30 лет. 

Профессор Хироюки Фудзивара. Национальный научно-исследовательского институт наук о Земле и предупреждению стихийных бедствий Японии.


Детерминистические предсказания отдельных землетрясений с точностью, достаточной для того, чтобы можно было планировать программы эвакуации невозможны в принципе. 

Cейсмологическое сообщество США


Даже отличный (гипотетический) метод прогнозирования будет иметь сомнительную социальную полезность, поскольку «организованная эвакуация городских центров вряд ли будет успешной», в то время, как можно ожидать панику и другие нежелательные побочные эффекты.

Сейсмолог Статис Стирос, Греция

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