Earthquakes can't be predicted. Phivolcs has long warned the public against posts claiming to predict the exact date and time of an earthquake.
Claim: The “Big One,” the magnitude 7.2 earthquake that can possibly hit Metro Manila, will strike the Philippines in August 2025.
Rating: FALSE
Why we fact-checked this: The post bearing the claim was made on July 4 by the Facebook page “God loves us.” As of writing, it has received 8,100 reactions, 7,600 comments, and 270 shares.
It shows a graphic with the text “Tatama na ang ‘The Big One’ 2025 (The Big One will hit in 2025).”
The post implies that a strong quake will hit the country in August, following a typhoon in July.
The facts: Experts cannot predict exactly when or where the Big One would occur. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has long warned the public to avoid believing posts claiming that an earthquake will strike a specific area at an exact date and time.
In April 2025, Phivolcs reshared its November 2023 post, saying, “There is no reliable technology in the world that can confidently predict the exact time, date, and location of large earthquakes.”
“We cannot predict when or where an earthquake will happen,” the agency previously stated in a Facebook post in 2018. “Please avoid sharing any messages from an unverified source that could cause panic and fear.”
Seismologists can only make estimates and calculate the probability of earthquakes happening in a specific area within a certain number of years. (EXPLAINER: Is it possible to predict earthquakes?)
The Big One: Several studies have warned of a potential strong earthquake dubbed the “Big One” that is believed to strike with a 7.2 magnitude on the West Valley Fault, threatening the lives of at least 34,000 people. Its impact is expected to greatly affect the country as the West Valley Fault traverses Greater Metro Manila, a highly populated area hosting the seat of government and the country’s business capital.
The 100-kilometer West Valley Fault moves roughly every 400 years. Because of this, experts say the “Big One” could happen in our lifetime. (READ: What dangers await when the West Valley Fault moves?)
Previous fact checks: Rappler has previously debunked similar false claims about earthquakes and disasters:
- FACT CHECK: Post warning of strong earthquake links to shopping site
- FACT CHECK: Earthquakes can’t be predicted, contrary to post claiming July 5 tremor
- FACT CHECK: AI photos of oarfish used to spread false earthquake warnings
- FACT CHECK: Viral video does not show earthquake in Australia
- FACT CHECK: Photos of earthquake in Colombia are AI-generated
– Angelee Kaye Abelinde/Rappler.com
Angelee Kaye Abelinde is a student journalist based in Naga City, and an alumna of Rappler’s Aries Rufo Journalism Fellowship 2024.
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Dear Ms. Abelinde,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your article published on Rappler:
“FACT CHECK: Date for ‘Big One’ earthquake can’t be predicted”
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/fact-check/date-big-one-earthquake-no-prediction/
I found it thoughtful and timely. However, I’d like to share an alternative perspective — from someone who has been developing an earthquake prediction system for 14 years.
Since 2011, I’ve been working on TRON, an online system for real-time prediction of earthquakes — their strength, location, and time. It’s based on a synthesis of observations, animal behavior, and indirect signals. The system is not yet fully operational, but it has shown promising preliminary results.
I recently published a blog post quoting your article in full (with a clear link to the original Rappler page) to give international readers access to the discussion.
Here is the link:
https://un-simulator.blogspot.com/2025/07/fact-check-date-for-big-one-earthquake.html
This is not a rebuttal, but a context-expanding comment.
Your article says that earthquakes cannot be predicted — and that’s the official stance of seismologists. However, that doesn’t mean such a technology is impossible. If scientists say something is not possible, it may simply mean they haven’t figured it out yet.
Let’s also be clear: if no one can predict when an earthquake will occur — then no one can say with certainty when it will not occur. In that sense, your article (or its interpretation by others) may accidentally create a false sense of security about August 2025. That too, by definition, is a misinformation risk.
We maintain a curated page with numerous references to animal behavior and seismic anomalies prior to major earthquakes. If Rappler is serious about fact-checking earthquake prediction claims, I invite you to examine this data:
https://un-simulator.blogspot.com/2025/06/how-animals-people-and-seismologists.html
Again, thank you for your attention to public safety. But I believe we all — journalists, scientists, technologists — should be open to future breakthroughs.
Best regards,
Boris Yarovoy
Project TRON
https://un-simulator.blogspot.com/